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What IF Pope Francis Dies During The COVID-19 Pandemic?

by Anura Guruge



A friend (& collaborator), a devout, lifelong Catholic asked me to address this.
So, I am.


Pope Francis did have the flu at the start of the pandemic,
and this ‘concern’ went ‘unsaid’.

One could assume that God will NOT allow this to happen.

If so this is all academic.


There are essentially 4 scenarios:

  1. Francis, prior to anything going awry, issues an edit that the conclave can be delayed.
    Highly, highly UNLIKELY. Popes hate having the papacy vacant — on the valid premise that ‘when the cat is away the mice will play‘.
    —-
  2. Francis, prior to anything going awry, issues an edit permitting secure, remote voting.
    Unlikely, and the Vatican will struggle trying to implement, in time, a proven, secure methodology to permit totally untraceable vote casting.
    —-
  3. Cardinal electors already in Rome and those able to travel will hold a conclave and ‘openly’ elect an ELDERLY caretaker pope with a tacit understanding that he will resign (per Benedict XVI) in June 2021.
    —-
  4. Cardinal electors already in Rome and those able to travel will hold a conclave and elect a new pope — with no caveats.

The issue, of course, is the travel restrictions.

Italian quarantine rules per se will NOT apply since the Vatican is its own independent sovereign state.

There is NO airport at the Vatican, but there is a helipad. So, cardinal electors could be choppered in from a nearby country that permits air travel — e.g., Croatia.

As I have repeatedly pointed out in my various ‘conclave’ books there is NO minimum quorum for a conclave. NONE. But, there is the sacrosanct two-thirds majority requirement. So, just 3 electors will suffice. It would not be difficult to muster 40 cardinal electors in/around Rome — at any given time.

Pope John XXIII was elected in 1958 by 51 electors. So, you don’t need 100+ electors to elect a good pope!

The current Dean, 85-year old Giovanni Battista Re would make a good caretaker pope. I think most electors will agree that he is trustworthy. Angelo Scola, 78, might be a great compromise — a cross between a caretaker and ‘normal’.

So, those, per I, are the only 4 meaningful and relevant scenarios.


Related posts:
Search ‘Pope’, ‘Francis’ or ‘Conclave’.


by Anura Guruge

How I Am Coping With The COVID-19 Pandemic. Lot To Be Said For My Approach.

by Anura Guruge


Coping with coronavirus covid-19 Anura Guruge

Click to ENLARGE.


Lot to be said in favor of my approach. For a start, it is way inline with the CDC guidelines for ‘social distancing’.

I am also trying to DROWN the damn germs.

Might not work for all of you, but it works for I.

P.S., Wrong color. I am black, not white. SMILE.


Related posts:
Search ‘virus’.


by Anura Guruge

Pope John XXIII Is NOT A Saint!

by Anura Guruge


From the Vatican as in http://www.vatican.va


Wikipedia.


Click to ENLARGE. From Google News. Google ‘Bergamo virus’.


Check YouTube for Bergamo Virus videos.


Bergamo has become Italy’s EPICENTER for COVID-19.

Bergamo is Pope John XXIII’s hometown. 


If Pope John XXIII was a Saint he would NOT let this happen to Bergamo. Simple as that. QED.

Pope John XXIII was an exceptional human being and an outstanding pope.

He is NOT called the ‘Good Pope’ for nothing.

You could trust John XXIII — and thousands, if not more, did.

He is credited with personally saving thousands of Jews during WW II — and that was way before he became pope.


Per Catholic tradition Saints sit on the right side of God (quite literally).

So, IF John XXIII was a Saint, he would be seated close to God.

John XXIII would not sit and let humanity suffer — and he would definitely intervene to help Bergamo.

IF John XXIII is a Saint Bergamo would NOT be the epicenter for COVID-19.


I have studied Pope John XXIII.

I wrote a book about him (below).

Trust me on this. I have no axe to grind.

Pope John XXIII is NOT a Saint.


Related posts:
++++ Search ‘John XXIII’


by Anura Guruge

The Next Pope: Why The Winner Needs The Backing Of A Hybrid Coalition.

by Anura Guruge


Click to ENLARGE.


Guruge 2020 Papabili Series — #V


You need a Supermajority, i.e., two-thirds of the votes cast, to be elected pope.

Coming up with this supermajority was a STROKE of genius. Yes, it sure complicates matters (and used to lead to interminably long elections) but it makes sure that the elected pope enjoyed a genuine mandate from his electorate. [It is also the case that one-thirds of the electorate can always block a candidate they do not want.]

The next conclave (unless Francis changes the 120 max ruling) is likely to have between 117 to 120 electors. Let’s, for this calculation, say 118. That means 79 electors MUST get behind the winner. [It also means that 39 can always BLOCK an election.]

Cobbling together 79 votes is not easy. Harder than most realize.

The ONLY group of electors that exceed that number is the total of active Archbishops & Bishops put together. But, they are NOT a homogeneous block that will always vote together. Geography for a start, plays a role before the ever crucial ideology kicks in.

Geography is interesting. Europe no longer can rustle up the majority and have been unable to do so for nearly (ir over) 90-years.

So, study the above chart. It gives you a good picture of the factions at play.


Related posts:
Check Category ‘Next Pope’.
Search ‘cardinals‘, ‘consistory‘ & ‘pope‘.


by Anura Guruge

The Next Pope: Angelo Scola (78) Could Be The ‘Hail Mary’ Pick If All Else Fails In 2020.

by Anura Guruge


Click to ENLARGE.


Guruge 2020 Papabili Series — #IV


Angelo Scola, the eternal ‘bridesmaid’ (so to speak), will turn 79 in November, 2020. That would be another psychological strike against him though we have had two 79-year olds elected as pope, albeit both in the 17th-century.

At ’78’ he can claim ‘parity’ with (his good friend) Benedict XVI — though Benedict XVI was elected just 3-days after he turned 78.

Age, ironically, is the biggest strike against him. 78 is pushing it. If elected before he turns 79 he will be the 4th (possibly 3rd) oldest to be elected (albeit as of 1400).

Yes, there is, as is now the case with nearly all Italian cardinals, a whiff of scandal attached to him. He is supposed to have Mafia connections! Sacré bleu. He is Italian. What do you expect? I don’t think the electors will worry about that. It could even be an advantage. An Italian pope with Mafia connections.

He was papabile in BOTH 2005 & 2013. In 2013 he was extremely papabile. He was my #4 pick.

Well, in 2013, the extremely influential & well-connected ‘Italian Conference of Bishops’ issued a Press Release congratulating Scola as soon as they saw the white smoke above the Sistine! They were so sure that Scola would be the next pope.

Scola, in 2020, prior to November, will be the pope of last resort. If all other avenues does not lead to the 2/3rd majority.

Yes, he will be a caretaker a pope — hopefully for 4- to 5-years.

I think Ouellet is more papabile than Scola. No doubt. But, if Ouellet fails to get the votes, the electors might despair and decided to just go with a known, trusted entity, Scola.


Related posts:
Check Category ‘Next Pope’.
Search ‘cardinals‘, ‘consistory‘ & ‘pope‘.


by Anura Guruge

The Next Pope: It Might Be The RETURN Of The Customary Italian Pope.

by Anura Guruge


Click to ENLARGE.


Guruge 2020 Papabili Series — #III


There is the famous adage: ‘a fat pope is followed by a thin pope‘.

In this instance it would be: ‘an unconventional pope is followed by a conventional pope‘.

Francis, by measure, was unconventional. For a start he was the first pope in centuries who had spent very little time in Rome. Francis’ exposure to Rome (and as such with the Vatican) was essentially non-existent. He did not have any education or training in Rome (or Italy) and he did not hold any significant curial roles of note. This might be a clue to why he has proved to be such an outsider within the Vatican.

Plus, he, despite his heritage, was non-European.

Francis has rocked the boat. He has not proved to be the pope that folks had thought and hoped.

It is now 42-years since the last Italian pope!

The Avignon papacy lasted 69-years.

I have a feeling that the next conclave is going to gravitate towards picking a traditional pope — at a minimum European. No exotics this time around.

But, they could go further. Go the whole hog, and opt for an Italian.

There are 22 Italian cardinal electors — as you can see.

This is my first cut. I will refine this Italian list over the next few weeks.

What are YOUR thoughts?


Related posts:
Check Category ‘Next Pope’.
Search ‘cardinals‘, ‘consistory‘ & ‘pope‘.


by Anura Guruge

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