Tag Archive | 1997

Lake Winnipesaukee 2015 Ice-Out Ici: Friday, April 24 At 4:34 pm.

Click to ENLARGE.

Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:
>> 2015: If it is Fri. April 24 …
>> 2015:
Pelting precipitation …
>> 2015:
Already happened 19 times.
>> 2015:
Not even close …
>> 2014 Ice-Out: middle of road.
>> 2014 Ice-Out, April 23.
>> Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.

++++ SearchWinnipesaukee’ for other posts >>>>


 Well, Lake Winnipesaukee 2015 Ice-Out as I predicted on Monday, and reiterated yesterday, happened on Friday, April 24, 2015. The official time was 4:34 pm. Shame that they did not take some poetic license with that so that we could all have said that 2015 ice-out ici was 4/24 at 4:24. C’est la vie.

Now, you have to please excuse me. Given that by nature and profession I am somewhat scientific — and have a love of dates and calendars — I can’t just go along that ice-out was on April 24. The problem, as I have oft stated, has to do with leap-years. This was not a leap-year. If it was, TODAY, April 24 would have been April 23. Get it. So I count ice-out in terms of actual days since January 1 of the year. So today, April 24, 2015, (not being a leap year), is day 113. OK? Are cool on that. Day 113.

I went through the numbers last night. But I will re-cap. 

Ice-Out has happened 12 times on the 113th day, in 1896, 1912 & 2008, which were all leap years, that having been on April 23rd. [In 1920, another leap year, April 24 was the 114th day!]

During the 128 years we know of ice-out has happened 82 times PRIOR to the 113th day; i.e., 64% of the time.

In 34 years the ice-out happened on the 114th day of later.

The record being the 132nd day in 1888; i.e., May 12, 1888.

The last time it was April 24 per se was 1997.

The last time it was the 113th day was much more recent, i.e., 2008.

Here are two charts. I might enforce copyright on both IF they are not attributed when reused. Click to ENLARGE.

ice2015iciasaa

Fluctuation is THE pattern. A very nice “W” towards the end.

2015iceoutapr24

From 1986, which is when I moved to New Hampshire.


IF Lake Winnipesaukee 2015 Ice-Out Happens On Friday, April 24, 2015.

. 2015 The green MGBs are out. crocuses in Alton, April 19.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:
>> 2015:
Pelting precipitation …
>> 2015:
Already happened 19 times.
>> 2015:
Not even close …
>> 2014 Ice-Out: middle of road.
>> 2014 Ice-Out, April 23.
>> Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.

++++ SearchWinnipesaukee’ for other posts >>>>


iecoutapr242015sadfad

Click to ENLARGE.

April 24, 2015, in this NON Leap Year, will be the 113th day of the year. Ice-Out has happened 12 times on the 113th day, in 1896, 1912 & 2008, which were all leap years, that having been on April 23rd. In 1920, another leap year, April 24 was the 114th day!

During the 128 years we know of ice-out has happened 82 times PRIOR to the 113th day; i.e., 64% of the time.

In 34 years the ice-out happened on the 114th day of later.

The record being the 132nd day in 1888; i.e., May 12, 1888.

The last time it was April 24 per se was 1997.

The last time it was the 113th day was much more recent, i.e., 2008.


Comet C/2011 L4 (Pan-STARRS): Where To Spot In The Northern Skies.

Dec2013x125

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by
Anura Guruge


Related posts:
1/ Naked Eye Visible … — Mar. 6, 2013.
2/ Comet First of two BIG 2013 comets: C/2011 L4 (Pan-STARRS)
>>Mar. 5, 2013.


Comet C/2011 L4 (PANSTARRS) will be visible to Northern hemisphere observers near the cresent moon on March 12th. This ‘map’ provided by NASA. Click to ENLARGE.


Another image from NASA, but this seen down-under in Australia. Click to ENLARGE. To see it as they saw it in Oz, you will have to stand on your head or turn your monitor upside down.


Another image, again down under. Now you know the drill. Click to ENLARGE. Somehow rotate the image to get the Australian view.


Perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) is today, March 10, 2013. As it turns around the Sun it also crosses the celestial equator, moving from the southern skies to the ones that really count — the northern skies, i.e., US. People are already seeing it — those close to the equator, such as my brethren in Sri Lanka getting early dibs.

As I have said before March 12 & 13 should be particularly good since the crescent Moon will provide a good reference. Try and get to a high point, like a small hill, so that you can see over trees — if you live in the country.

Enjoy. I will try and keep you posted.

Here are two useful links: NASA & Space Weather.

Comet C/2011 L4 (Pan-STARRS) Should Be Naked Eye Visible March 12 & 13, 2013, At Sunset, Near Crescent Moon.

Dec2013x125

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by
Anura Guruge


C/2011 L4 (Pan-STARRS) over South Africa — last week.




C/2011 L4 as indicated by its official designation was discovered in 2011, on June 6, 2011.

It was discovered ‘robotically’ [i.e., by automated, computer software scanning digital images] by the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) initiative whose telescopes are located at the summit of Mount Haleakala on Maui, Hawaii. Hence the parenthetical name ‘Pan-STARRS’.

Calling it Comet Pan-STARRS is wrong and meaningless!

The Pan-STARRS program, an automated survey of the sky, discovers comets at a rapid rate. There are many, many comets with the parenthetical name ‘Pan-STARRS’ — this name denoting the discoverer. It is only real and unique name is C/2011 L4. Comet’s can only be named after a person involved with its discovery (or the calculation of its orbit). Comets such as this one, discovered by computer software, are not assigned a name of a person. And NO, you cannot buy its name.

Alas, it won’t be very bright. So, provided we have clear skies, next Tuesday and Wednesday, close to the Moon — around sunset.

Bright Naked Eye Comet, The 1st Of the Two Biggies Of 2013, Will Soon Be Visible Over NH. Comet C/2011 L4 (PANSTARRS).

Dec2013x125

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by
Anura Guruge



Over Argentina on March 2. Image courtesy Luis Argerich — with Thanks.


Compute orbital diagram from NASA/JPL. Click to ENLARGE.

Compute orbital diagram from NASA/JPL. Click to ENLARGE.


We won’t see it in the Northern Hemisphere until next week. It would, of course, be better with binoculars or a small telescope. It, alas, is not going to be as bright as initially hoped.

But, this is only the teaser, the support act, for the main cometary event of the year — possibly the century. And I am here talking as one that saw and remembered C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) in 1997.

The BIG ONE will be around Thanksgiving/Hanukkah 2013. C/2012 S1 (ISON). That will be a show. Mark my word.


Hale-Bopp c. 1997.


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