The Next Pope: Why The Winner Needs The Backing Of A Hybrid Coalition.
Guruge 2020 Papabili Series — #V
You need a Supermajority, i.e., two-thirds of the votes cast, to be elected pope.
Coming up with this supermajority was a STROKE of genius. Yes, it sure complicates matters (and used to lead to interminably long elections) but it makes sure that the elected pope enjoyed a genuine mandate from his electorate. [It is also the case that one-thirds of the electorate can always block a candidate they do not want.]
The next conclave (unless Francis changes the 120 max ruling) is likely to have between 117 to 120 electors. Let’s, for this calculation, say 118. That means 79 electors MUST get behind the winner. [It also means that 39 can always BLOCK an election.]
Cobbling together 79 votes is not easy. Harder than most realize.
The ONLY group of electors that exceed that number is the total of active Archbishops & Bishops put together. But, they are NOT a homogeneous block that will always vote together. Geography for a start, plays a role before the ever crucial ideology kicks in.
Geography is interesting. Europe no longer can rustle up the majority and have been unable to do so for nearly (ir over) 90-years.
So, study the above chart. It gives you a good picture of the factions at play.
Check Category ‘Next Pope’.
Search ‘cardinals‘, ‘consistory‘ & ‘pope‘.