Pope Francis’ February 2015 Cardinal Creating Consistory: Louis Epstein’s Cardinalabili List.
by Anura Guruge
I have been doing cardinalabili lists (i.e., prospective cardinals) since 2010. You can find these plus all the consistory and College of Cardinal work I used to do, daily, on my now quiesced ‘Popes and Papacy‘ and ‘Papam‘ blogs. Though I really don’t have time to devote much time or attention to papal matters I do kind of feel obligated to put forward at least one cardinalabili list ahead of the February 2015 cardinal creating consistory. I never do cardinalabili lists myself. It was never my expertise. My forte is papabili lists and right now my track record is good because I did name this pope, by name, in my list way back in 2011.
For this list I turned to Louis Epstein with whom I have successfully collaborated for many years. Louis has supplied me with more cardinalabili lists than any other — I think. Louis is good. Here is his last list — for the February 2014 consistory. If you go to ‘Popes and Papacy‘ and do a search on Louis you will find MANY, MANY of his contributions.
That said, Louis doesn’t produce cardinalabili lists per se! What he does maintain is a rolling list of cardinalabili prospects. he updates this list independent of whether there is a forthcoming consistory or not. So I take his list and do a bit of massaging and editing. So this is NOT his full list. It is just the parts that I think are germane to this coming consistory. Louis also does not prioritize. So those are the caveats.
1/ As far as I can see, and I am a bit out of practice since I no longer keep track of this on a daily basis, with an elaborate Excel spreadsheet, barring any deaths we would be at 110 cardinal electors on February 14, 2015 (Valentine’s Day). Another cardinal turns 80 on March 18 and another on April 19. Like his two previous predecessors Francis is likely to be naughty and exceed the 120 limit — UNLESS of course he ups it given that it was set, arbitrarily, in 1973. If he doesn’t up the 120 and opts to stay within the bounds there will only be vacanacies for 10 new cardinal electors. If he decides to turn a blind eye to the limit he probably will name at least 12 under 80s and as many over 80s as he wants. So that is the first, and most important, caveat. 10 to 12 to … cardinal electors and 5, 6, 7 or 8 non-elector, over 80 cardinals. But, knowing this pope’s propensity to surprise he may opt not to name any over-80s. That really was what Paul VI (#263) when he set the 80 year cut-off for electors in 1970. After that he never created any cardinals who were older than 80. John Paul II (#265) and Benedict XVI (#266) created plenty.
2/ Francis is a true maverick. So anything is possible. He likes to shock. So I would not be surprised by any ‘totally off the charts’ namings from obscure places.
3/ I think we will see an emphasis on non-European designees.
4/ He can’t name females as cardinals because has to be a priest and a bishop and women can be neither in the Catholic church. But I would not be surprised if this pope creates a new category of non-priest advisors — like an advisory board. Such a board could include women — and nuns would not be a bad thing.
Louis Epstein’s Cardinalabili List for February 2015.
After the February 2014 consistory, it’s time for my standing draft list of possible Cardinals for the NEXT consistory to be updated. Benedict XVI seemed inclined to return to the Pius XI and John XXIII practice of having many small consistories, andPope Francis seems to be starting an annual February tradition; a coming crush of 80th birthdays is rushing things.
Zygmunt Zimowski, President of the Pontifical Council for Pastoral Care of Health Care Workers — generally-cardinalitial post, has waited. [b: April 1949, Polish]
Jean-Louis Brugues, Archivist and Librarian of the Holy Roman Church — cardinalitial post. [b. Nov 1943, French]
Vincenzo Paglia, President of the Pontifical Council for the Family – usually cardinalitial post. [b Apr 1945, Italian]
Dominique Mamberti, Prefect of the Supreme Tribunal of the Apostolic Signatura — cardinalitial post. [b. Mar 1952, French-Moroccan.]
The President of the Pontifical Council for Social Communications, Claudio Maria Celli (July 1941, Italian), whose predecessor left to be elevated as Grand Master of the Holy Sepulchre, seems a rung below eligibility.
The same for the President of the Office of Labor of the Apostolic See, Giorgio Corbellini (April 1947, Italian) though (dead) Cardinals have held it; his additional appointments to head the Disciplinary Commission of the Roman Curia and (ad interim) the Financial Information Authority (in each case succeeding a Cardinal) may strengthen his position.
Piero Marini of the Pontifical Committee for International Eucharistic Congresses is hard to categorize, as the post has previously gone to Cardinals stepping down from more important jobs, not men stepping up from lesser ones.
Georg Gaenswein (July 1956, German) by precedent would only be elevated on leaving his job as Prefect of the Pontifical Household, but with his patron [viz, Ratzinger] having departed that might be soon.
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John Atcherley Dew, Archbishop of Wellington –cardinalitial see, predecessor retired promptly and has aged out of the electorate (but hat keeps waiting … heterodox culture in archdiocese may be a reason). [b. May 1948, New Zealand]
Odon Marie Arsene Razanakolona, Archbishop of Antananarivo—consistently cardinalitial see, predecessor dead, already bypassed repeatedly. [b. May 1946, Madagascar]
Braulio Rodriguez Plaza, Archbishop of Toledo — cardinalitial see. [b. Jan 1945, Spanish]
Andre Leonard, Archbishop of Malines-Brussels — cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate, already bypassed. [b. May 1940, Belgian]
Cesare Nosiglia, Archbishop of Turin — cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate, already bypassed. [b. Oct 1944, Italian]
Murilo Sebastiao Ramos Krieger, Archbishop of Sao Salvador de Bahia — cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out, already bypassed. [b. Sept 1943, Brazilian]
Jose Horacio Gomez, Archbishop of Los Angeles in California — cardinalitial see. [b. Dec 1951, Mexican-USA]
Charles Chaput, Archbishop of Philadelphia — cardinalitial see. [b. Sept 1944/USA]
Francesco Moraglia, Patriarch of Venice — cardinalitial see. [b. May 1953, Italian]
Christian Lepine, Archbishop of Montreal — cardinalitial see. [b. Sept 1951, Canadian]
Manuel Jose Macario do Nascimento Clemente, Patriarch of Lisbon — cardinalitial see, predecessor dead. [b. July 1948, Portuguese]
Carlos Osoro Sierra, Archbishop of Madrid — cardinalitial see. [b. May 1945, Spanish]
Eamon Martin, Archbishop of Armagh — cardinalitial see, but young. [b. Oct 1961, UK]
Blase Cupich, Archbishop of Chicago — cardinalitial see. [b. Mar 1949, USA]
Allen Henry Vigneron, Archbishop of Detroit – hitherto cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate. [b. Oct 1948, USA]
Fausto Gabriel Travez Travez, Archbishop of Quito – usually cardinalitial see, predecessor got hat after retiring and has aged out of the electorate. [b. March 1941, Ecuadorian]
Wojciech Polak, Archbishop of Gniezno — traditionally cardinalitial primatial see, last two ordinaries by passed and most recent cardinal dead, still young. [b. Dec 1964, Polish]
Sviatoslav Shevchuk, Major Archbishop of the Ukrainian Greek Catholics — cardinalitial see but remarkably young for a modern Cardinal; ailing predecessor has aged out. [b. May 1970, Ukrainian]
Jozef Piotr Kupny (b. Feb 1956), Archbishop of Wroclaw, is another Polish candidate, if young ,and his predecessor was not elevated.
The status of Tadeusz Kondrusiewicz (b. Jan 1946) of Belarus is unclear … he succeeded a cardinal he once installed.
Nikola Eterovic (Jan 1951, Croatian) preceded Baldisseri (now a cardinal) as Secretary-General of the Synod of Bishops, a post whose holders seem to get to the cardinalate SLOWLY, and was young enough to wait a while … now named a Nuncio he will have to wait longer.
Slovakia may be given an elector as the ailing Korec and Tomko have both aged out, presumably Stanislav Zvolenski (b. Nov 1958) of Bratislava, though his youth might delay his selection. Likewise notably young would be Ukraine’s Mieczyslaw Mokrzycki (b. Mar 1961), but despite his closeness to John Paul II Latin-Lviv’s cardinalitial track record is unclear.
The importance Pope Francis attaches to bishops’ conferences may help Georges Pontier (b. May 1943, France), conference president from near-cardinalitial Marseille.
A new Archbishop of Berlin would have a good chance, though the see is fairly new.
I expect that some African and Asian prelates will likely be added.
Archbishop Alfred Adewale Martins (b. June 1959) succeeded Cardinal Okogiein Lagos ,but his youth, and Cardinal Okogie having waited a long time, might indicate a wait for the hat unless the see’s growth has bearing; in November 2012 the more senior Archbishop of Abuja got preference.
Cyprian Lwanga(b. Jan 1953,Uganda) has followed two Cardinals in Kampala.
Ignace Ephrem Younan (Nov 1944/Syrian) is probably the likeliest Eastern Rites Patriarch. Ibrahim Isaac Sidrak (Aug 1955/Egyptian) is likely in for a long wait though Alexandria of the Copts has as good a cardinalitial track record as any Oriental see. Peter Takeo Okada of Tokyo (b. Oct 1941) of Japan seems the country’s leading candidate (Japan now has no cardinals), but would be a consecutive Archbishop of Tokyo after past rotation between Tokyo, Nagasaki, and Osaka(whose incumbents are younger and junior in tenure).
Someone from Oceania (Apia-Samoa’s Alapati Mataeliga (b. Jan 1953), predecessor is dead, is a possibility) is likely. Australia may see either Hart of Melbourne or the younger Fisher of Sydney elevated, or may wait. JoseSerofia Palma (Mar 1950,Philippines) succeeded a cardinal as Archbishopof Cebu, hosts the next International Eucharistic Congress, and has waited. Other Filipinos mentioned include Lagdemeo, in his 70s, but his see (Jaro) has never had a Cardinal and the ordinary off ar smaller Cotabato was elevated in 2014.
Certainly more Latin Americans. (Hard to say which, some seats rotate among small countries … the death of Guatemala’s only cardinal may increase the chances of Oscar Julio Vian Morales (b. Oct 1947) but predecessors waited). Carlos Aguiar Retes (Jan 1950 ,Mexican) became a serious candidate through election to the presidency of CELAM(his first VP was elevated). New Archbishop of Monterrey Rogelio Cabrera Lopez (b. Jan 1951) would establish that see as cardinalitial if selected.
In Brazil, some large sees are only establishing cardinalitial track records. Walmor Oliveira deAzevedo of Belo Horizonte (b. April 1954) and Jose Antonio Aparecido TosiMarques of Fortaleza(May 1948) seem leading candidates, Sergio da Rocha of Brasilia (b. Oct 1959) is on the young and junior side.
Those who appear to have been passed over include Luigi de Magistris, former Pro-Penitentiary Major(b. Feb 1926), presumably lost his chance with the job (but was rumored as an over-80); Michael Louis Fitzgerald (b. August 1937, British), sent from the apparently cardinalitial post of President of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue to a nunciature from which he has retired; Raphael Ndingi Mwanaa Keki of Nairobi (b. Dec 1931), succeeded a cardinal but retired at 75 without the hat in favor of a man who immediately got it; Stanislaw Wielgus (b. April 1939, Polish), forced to step down as Archbishop of Warsaw over secret-police ties; Jan Sokol (b, Sept 1933), retired as Slovakia’s senior archbishop after both its electors had aged out; Robert Bezak (b. March 1960), abruptly removed as successor to part of Sokol’s divided see; Paciano Aniceto (b. Mar 1937,Philippines), retired archbishop of never-cardinalitial (3-million-Catholic) San Fernando; Henryk Muszynski (b.March 1933, Polish), retired as Archbishop of Gniezno and Primate of Poland as the first such since 1915 never made a Cardinal; Marian Golebiewski (b.Sept 1937, Polish), retired as archbishop of previously-cardinalitial Wroclaw; Jozef Kowalczyk(b. Aug 1938, Polish), served briefly in the hitherto-cardinalitial primatial post of Archbishop of Gniezno, whose most recent cardinal is dead; and the former dean of the Rota, Antoni Stankiewicz(b. Oct 1935, Polans),the post seems to have lost cardinalitial status though he was named abishop in 2006. John Paul II did seem to offer preferment to Poles….not Benedict nor apparently Francis.